(em português)

This thesis explores different aspects of the induction of tree-based regression models from data. The main goal of this study is to improve the predictive accuracy of regression trees, while retaining as much as possible their comprehensibility and computational efficiency. Our study is divided in three main parts.

In the first part we describe in detail two different methods of growing a regression tree: minimising the mean squared error and minimising the mean absolute deviation. Our study is particularly focussed on the computational efficiency of these tasks. We present several new algorithms that lead to significant computational speed- ups. We also describe an experimental comparison of both methods of growing a regression tree highlighting their different application goals.

Pruning is a standard procedure within tree-based models whose goal is to provide a good compromise for achieving simple and comprehensible models with good predictive accuracy. In the second part of our study we describe a series of new techniques for pruning by selection from a series of alternative pruned trees. We carry out an extensive set of experiments comparing different methods of pruning, which show that our proposed techniques are able to significantly outperform the predictive accuracy of current state of the art pruning algorithms in a large set of regression domains.

In the final part of our study we present a new type of tree-based models that we refer to as local regression trees. These hybrid models integrate tree-based regression with local modelling techniques. We describe different types of local regression trees and show that these models are able to significantly outperform standard regression trees in terms of predictive accuracy. Through a large set of experiments we prove the competitiveness of local regression trees when compared to existing regression techniques.